Syracuse, NY, November 19, 2025
Recent polling data reveals a competitive race for the New York gubernatorial election as incumbent Kathy Hochul faces Republican Elise Stefanik. Hochul’s lead has diminished significantly, reflecting growing voter dissatisfaction with her administration. While Hochul currently leads by 25 points, the margin with Stefanik is narrowing. The polls show diverse regional support and indicate a more challenging election year ahead as both candidates gear up for intensified campaigns.
New York Governor’s Race: Latest Polls Show Tightening Contest Between Hochul and Stefanik
Syracuse, NY – Recent polls indicate a narrowing gap in the upcoming New York gubernatorial race between incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Representative Elise Stefanik. While Hochul maintains a lead, the margin has decreased in recent months, reflecting a more competitive race as the election approaches.
Current Polling Data
According to a Siena College poll conducted from November 10 to 12, 2025, among 802 registered voters, Hochul leads Stefanik 52% to 27%. This represents a slight decrease from previous polls, where Hochul held a 25-point lead over Stefanik in September. The margin of error for this poll is ±4.0%.
Voter Sentiment and Approval Ratings
Despite the lead, voter sentiment shows signs of dissatisfaction with the current administration. A significant portion of voters express a desire for new leadership, with 55% indicating they would prefer “someone else” as governor. Hochul’s favorability rating stands at 43-45%, down from 45-42% in September, and her job approval rating is at 52-43%, a slight decrease from 54-40% in the previous survey.
Stefanik’s Position and Recognition
Stefanik, representing New York’s 21st congressional district, has gained recognition and support within the Republican Party. She leads potential GOP primary contenders, including Representative Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. Additionally, Stefanik has a higher statewide recognition rate of 69%, compared to Lawler’s 58% and Blakeman’s 36%, positioning her uniquely to consolidate Republican support.
Regional Variations
The polls also reveal regional differences in voter preferences. In New York City, Hochul holds a 42-point lead over Stefanik. However, the advantage narrows to 9 points in the downstate suburbs and a slim 3-point lead upstate. These regional variations highlight the diverse political landscape across the state.
Implications for the 2026 Election
The tightening race suggests a more competitive gubernatorial election in 2026 than previously anticipated. As the election approaches, shifts in voter sentiment and campaign dynamics will play crucial roles in determining the outcome. Both candidates are expected to intensify their campaigns to address voter concerns and solidify support across the state.
Conclusion
The latest polling data indicates a narrowing gap between Governor Kathy Hochul and Representative Elise Stefanik in the New York gubernatorial race. While Hochul maintains a lead, the decreasing margin and voter dissatisfaction signal a potentially more competitive election ahead. Observers will continue to monitor these developments as the 2026 election approaches.
FAQ
What is the current polling data for the New York gubernatorial race?
According to a Siena College poll conducted from November 10 to 12, 2025, among 802 registered voters, Governor Kathy Hochul leads Representative Elise Stefanik 52% to 27%, with a margin of error of ±4.0%.
How has voter sentiment shifted in recent months?
Voter sentiment shows signs of dissatisfaction with the current administration. A significant portion of voters express a desire for new leadership, with 55% indicating they would prefer “someone else” as governor.
What is Elise Stefanik’s position within the Republican Party?
Elise Stefanik has gained recognition and support within the Republican Party, leading potential GOP primary contenders, including Representative Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
How do regional variations affect the gubernatorial race?
The polls reveal regional differences in voter preferences, with Hochul holding a 42-point lead in New York City, a 9-point advantage in downstate suburbs, and a 3-point lead upstate. These variations highlight the diverse political landscape across the state.
What are the implications for the 2026 election?
The tightening race suggests a more competitive gubernatorial election in 2026 than previously anticipated. Shifts in voter sentiment and campaign dynamics will play crucial roles in determining the outcome. Both candidates are expected to intensify their campaigns to address voter concerns and solidify support across the state.
Key Features of the New York Gubernatorial Race
| Feature | Details |
|---|---|
| Current Polling Data | Hochul leads Stefanik 52% to 27%, with a margin of error of ±4.0%. |
| Voter Sentiment | 55% of voters prefer “someone else” as governor, indicating dissatisfaction with the current administration. |
| Stefanik’s Position | Leads potential GOP primary contenders and has a higher statewide recognition rate of 69%. |
| Regional Variations | Hochul holds a 42-point lead in NYC, a 9-point advantage in downstate suburbs, and a 3-point lead upstate. |
| Implications for 2026 Election | The narrowing gap suggests a more competitive gubernatorial election in 2026. |
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