New York City, December 16, 2025
In December, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index saw a significant drop to -3.9, down from 18.7 in November, indicating a return to contraction in the manufacturing sector. Key metrics such as new orders and shipments reflected a slowdown in demand and activity. While employment saw a modest increase, factors like reduced prices and weak order volumes signal caution in economic outlook. Despite challenges, there is some optimism for future conditions as businesses anticipate improvements in the next six months.
Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets, Raising Economic Concerns
New York City, NY – The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index has experienced a significant downturn, dropping to -3.9 in December 2025 from 18.7 in November, and falling short of the anticipated 10.0. This decline indicates a return to contraction in the manufacturing sector after two months of expansion.
Key Components of the December Report
- New Orders: Held steady at 0.0, down from 15.9 in November, suggesting a slowdown in demand.
- Shipments: Fell to -5.7 from 16.8, indicating reduced activity in the manufacturing sector.
- Employment: Increased modestly to 7.3 from 6.6, with the average workweek edging up to 3.5 from 7.7, reflecting limited growth in labor demand.
- Prices Paid: Decreased to 37.6 from 49.0, and Prices Received dropped to 19.8 from 24.0, indicating easing inflation pressures.
- Unfilled Orders: Deteriorated further to -14.9 from -5.8, and Delivery Times shortened to -5.9 from 7.7, suggesting weaker demand and faster deliveries.
- Inventories: Increased modestly to 4.0 from 6.7, while Supply Availability worsened to -6.9 from -11.5.
Future Outlook
The index for future general business conditions rose to 35.7 from 19.1, suggesting that firms have become more optimistic about conditions improving over the next six months.
Background on the Empire State Manufacturing Index
The Empire State Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, assessing the health of the manufacturing sector in New York State. A reading above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, while a reading below 0.0 signals deterioration. The index serves as a leading indicator of economic activity, closely monitored by market analysts and investors.
Impact on the Manufacturing Sector
The recent decline in the Empire State Manufacturing Index reflects broader challenges within the manufacturing sector, including reduced demand and supply chain disruptions. These factors contribute to a cautious economic outlook for the region, yet local entrepreneurs and businesses show resilience and adaptability, which may foster innovation and growth despite challenging times.
Related Financial Market Movements
The downturn in manufacturing activity has had a noticeable impact on related financial markets. The State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI), which tracks industrial sector performance, is currently trading at $156.99, reflecting a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous close. Conversely, the State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME), representing the metals and mining sector, is trading at $100.85, down 1.35% from the previous close. These movements underscore the interconnectedness of manufacturing activity and financial markets.
Conclusion
The significant decline in the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index highlights ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector, including reduced demand and supply chain issues. While there is some optimism about future conditions, the current data suggests a cautious economic outlook for the region. Stakeholders are encouraged to monitor these developments closely and support local businesses, which are critical to New York’s economic resilience and growth.
FAQ
What is the Empire State Manufacturing Index?
The Empire State Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, assessing the health of the manufacturing sector in New York State. A reading above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, while a reading below 0.0 signals deterioration. The index is closely watched by market analysts and investors as a leading indicator of economic activity.
What does the recent decline in the index signify?
The recent decline in the Empire State Manufacturing Index reflects broader challenges within the manufacturing sector, including reduced demand and supply chain disruptions. These factors contribute to a cautious economic outlook for the region.
How has the manufacturing sector’s performance affected financial markets?
The downturn in manufacturing activity has had a noticeable impact on related financial markets. The State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI), which tracks industrial sector performance, is currently trading at $156.99, reflecting a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous close. Conversely, the State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME), representing the metals and mining sector, is trading at $100.85, down 1.35% from the previous close. These movements underscore the interconnectedness of manufacturing activity and financial markets.
What is the future outlook for the manufacturing sector?
The index for future general business conditions rose to 35.7 from 19.1, suggesting that firms have become more optimistic about conditions improving over the next six months.
How does the Empire State Manufacturing Index impact the broader economy?
The Empire State Manufacturing Index is a key indicator of economic activity in New York State. A significant decline, as seen recently, can signal potential slowdowns in the broader economy, affecting employment, consumer spending, and overall economic growth.
Key Features of the Empire State Manufacturing Index Report
| Feature | Details |
|---|---|
| Current Index Value | -3.9 (December 2025) |
| Previous Index Value | 18.7 (November 2025) |
| Forecasted Index Value | 10.0 |
| New Orders Index | 0.0 (down from 15.9) |
| Shipments Index | -5.7 (down from 16.8) |
| Employment Index | 7.3 (up from 6.6) |
| Prices Paid Index | 37.6 (down from 49.0) |
| Prices Received Index | 19.8 (down from 24.0) |
| Unfilled Orders Index | -14.9 (down from -5.8) |
| Delivery Times Index | -5.9 (down from 7.7) |
| Inventories Index | 4.0 (up from 6.7) |
| Supply Availability Index | -6.9 (down from -11.5) |
| Future General Business Conditions Index | 35.7 (up from 19.1) |
Now Happening on X
- @MaceNewsMacro (December 15, 2025): US NY Fed Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index reported at -3.9 in December, down from 18.7 in November and missing market expectations of 10.0. View on X
- @Solix_Trade (December 15, 2025): New York manufacturing hit a wall in December with the Empire State Index dropping to -3.9 from 18.7, below expectations; orders steady but deliveries slipping and prices remain high. View on X
- @wallstengine (December 15, 2025): NY Fed Empire manufacturing index slipped into contraction at -3.9 in December versus 10 expected, with new orders flat, shipments weaker, but hiring positive and future outlook rising to 35.7. View on X
- @rymondIncKenya (December 15, 2025): New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey for December shows business activity slipped to -3.9 headline index; orders steady, shipments softer, employment up, with firms more optimistic ahead. View on X
- @Econoday (December 15, 2025): Empire State Mfg Index fell to -3.9 in December, with orders flat, shipments down, prices easing but high; employment up slightly and optimism jumped for future conditions. View on X
- @NYFedResearch (December 15, 2025): The December Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates manufacturing activity declined slightly in New York State, with the headline index falling 23 points to -3.9 after prior increases. View on X
- @RTTNews (December 15, 2025): New York Manufacturing Index unexpectedly turns negative in December, signaling potential economic concerns in the sector. View on X
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