Illustration of the potential impact of federal budget cuts on New York's essential social services.
The federal budget bill, dubbed the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act,’ has narrowly passed the House, raising concerns in New York over cuts to vital programs such as SNAP and Medicaid. Proposed changes could cost the state billions and impact millions of residents reliant on these services. Governor Hochul warns of severe consequences for employment and food security as the bill moves to the Senate for review.
The bill introduces a substantial hike in the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap, increasing it from $10,000 to $40,000 for households earning below $500,000 and instituting a 1% annual escalation. Proponents argue that raising the SALT cap will provide much-needed assistance to middle-class families, particularly in high-tax areas like New York. However, the bill brings with it more severe repercussions, including drastic funding reductions for critical social services.
Governor Kathy Hochul’s office has projected that New York could face annual losses exceeding $13 billion due to the proposed cuts. The SNAP program alone will see a reduction exceeding $290 billion on a national scale, jeopardizing food assistance for approximately 3 million New Yorkers who collectively received $655 million in benefits as of January 2025. Advocates have voiced concerns that these funding decreases could exacerbate childhood hunger in the state and shift a significant financial burden to New York, which may need to cover up to 25% of benefit payments and 75% of administrative costs, potentially costing taxpayers between $366 million and $1.8 billion by 2028.
Furthermore, the budget cuts include a $10 billion reduction in federal Medicaid funding for New York. This reduction is anticipated to lead to the loss of approximately 78,000 jobs in the healthcare sector, with an additional ripple effect of 136,000 more job losses across related industries. The New York Essential Plan, designed to support low-income residents, is expected to suffer a funding reduction of 57%, which may force over 500,000 enrollees, many of whom are immigrants, into the existing Medicaid program. The switch could result in an additional financial stress of $2.7 billion for the state.
The cumulative effect of these changes could escalate the total job losses in New York to exceed 215,000, with New York City projected to lose a staggering $5.4 billion in Medicaid funding. Local healthcare systems are already predicting significant financial strains, with one local hospital system estimating losses nearing $1 billion due to the diminished federal support.
Governor Hochul and other Democratic leaders have condemned the bill, alleging it dismantles the safety net for the most vulnerable populations in favor of tax breaks for the wealthy. Republican members of Congress have defended their support for the legislation, underlining the potential benefits for their constituents and asserting that a large percentage of families in their districts will see enhanced SALT deductions. Despite the support for the SALT cap increase, some Republican lawmakers are facing criticisms, especially those who previously committed to preserving SNAP and Medicaid funding.
The bill is now set to be reviewed in the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has characterized it as detrimental to working families. Schumer has highlighted that the proposed legislation could endanger approximately 700,000 clean energy jobs due to weakened tax credits. Additionally, it introduces stringent work requirements for select Medicaid recipients, necessitating that certain adults engage in at least 20 hours of work or volunteer activity weekly to retain eligibility.
As the bill advances through the legislative process, uncertainty looms regarding its final shape and potential consequences. Should the legislation be enacted, millions of New Yorkers may find their access to food security, healthcare, and economic relief fundamentally altered, which could have long-lasting implications for the state’s most vulnerable residents.
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